HBJ Gains Will Likely Mean Little

New vote counts from all three counties have brought the difference between Hannah-Beth Jackson and Tony Strickland to just 903 votes but unless there is a preponderance of votes left in Los Angeles County that happen to be in the district and very pro-HBJ-- this deficit will be too much to overcome.

In my rather "wonkish" assessment last week, we saw that HBJ would have to get over 60% of the votes that were left to win the race. This round of vote counting brought he a 52.7% to 47.2% ratio. This shows that provisional votes in Ventura County gave her a slight bump in likely Democratic votes but not enough to overcome Strickland. Here's a chart and there's more info on this from Jerry Roberts over at The Indy.

(Click to Enlarge)