Predictions Board
After a long, surreal day in traffic due to the La Cumbre overpass incident (see EdHat for an opportunity to comment -- they have had a whole day of discussion already) -- I realized I forgot to ask if there are any predictions for tomorrow?
I'll stretch and say Obama by 4% when it might be just 3%, Farr in the 3rd by 1% only because of Democratic turnout; and, Easton and Connell will win because Blois can't carry Gilman's day in Goleta. Heron, Deacon and Cordero in that order for school board.
What say you?
I'll stretch and say Obama by 4% when it might be just 3%, Farr in the 3rd by 1% only because of Democratic turnout; and, Easton and Connell will win because Blois can't carry Gilman's day in Goleta. Heron, Deacon and Cordero in that order for school board.
What say you?
posted by Sara De la Guerra | 11/03/2008 11:07:00 PM
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7 Comments:
what say me? Me say that Sara de la Guerra is a wee bit teched this mornin'.......Farr by only 1% and even then just cause of Dem turnout???? are you high?
I say Farr by 7-10%
Obama by 6%
Connell and scary guy Gilman take Goleta [Sorry, Ed]
Sara, you are redeemed by your accurate school board predictions.
Oh, and I say NO on Measure G will prevail.
YES on Measure A
NO on Prop 8
NO on Prop 7
The Yes on 8 people are out in huge numbers - canvassing, calling and GOTV. Prop 8 also on the ballot may skew CA towards McCain. Same with the abortion parental notification prop. CA is not solid for Obama with these two hot button values items on the ballot.
Sara, you forgot the judge race:
John MacKinnon
Obama 55%, McCain 45%
Your predictions sound good to me. I am hoping Charlotte Ware gets on the school board, so that is the only place I disagree with your picks.
Predictions:
Farr in the 3rd - 52%
Jackson will squeek by with 50.1 when all the votes are counted (and recounted)
Goleta: Blois & Connell
Judge: McKinnon
Yes on A - 58%
Yes on G - 52%
Yes on H - 56%
Yes on I - 56%
SB School Board: Heron, Deacon, Cordero (in that order)
Obama in SB County 58%
Redstone, CA is not solid for Obama? Polling has shown him beating McCain by almost 30 points for months. Marriage rights and teen privacy might bring out some extra evangelical votes but there isn't even a theoretical possibility of this state going red in the presidential race.
Our district: Obama+8 / Statewide: Obama+15
Jackson+2
Prop 8 looks to be defeated but only just barely. 10 is going down in flames. Republican redistricting and restriction of teenage privace, unfortunately, are probably going to pass.
Measure A - I don't know. Maybe you guys have a different view of it in SB, here in Lompoc everyone I talk to complains about waste and corruption and blah blah... anti-tax politics are an article of faith out here, no matter how tiny the tax is. I don't see it passing thanks to the shortsighted folks here and in SM.
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