Predictions
Here's the requested prediction thread -- let's keep it to just predictions, shall we?
posted by Sara De la Guerra | 11/07/2005 07:45:00 PM
Our Community Guidelines ask that you use the Blogger/Open ID login or the
more private Name/URL option when making comments. Comments using "Anonymous" will not be published. For more info, see choosing an identity.
13 Comments:
Horton House Falcone
lots of room between 1st and 2nd. alota room between 2nd and 3rd too.
3rd and 4th very close to each other. redd and channing very close to iya and each other
Horton in front by 10. Falcone and House neck and neck for second and third, above Redd by 7. Channing trails Redd by 7. Turnout will be the key.
Blum 63, Lammy 32, others 5
I think Blum 64, Ebenstein 30 others/no vote 6.
Council will be Horton, with House and Falcone neck and neck about 7 or eight points back. If Redd really got a boost from the POA, she could ironically squeek by Falcone but I doubt it. Channing just didn't connect and will be a few points further back.
from the other thread:
Anonymous said...
HORTON = 9100 votes
HOUSE = 8300 votes
FALCONE = 7400 votes
REDD = 7200 votes
CHANNING = 6900 votes
6:31 PM
That prediction I copied from the other thread above is a good bet. But if just 201 voters did the terrible "undemocratic" (to quote Redd herself) bullet voting for Redd, the total would be:
Horton 8900
House 8100
Redd 7401
Falcone 7200
Channing 6900
An early Thanksgiving?
The story in the end also is total money spent per vote per candidate.
After the election, another prediction of total money spent per candidate also would be fun.
Sorry for this not quite a strict prediction, but my home on election eve received a call from a live person pitching for Redd. The opening message, IN THEIR SCRIPT, was to ask for a vote for Redd to be the THIRD vote for city council.
Why such low expectations for themselves? That would lead to the likely scenario above, with Redd a fourth place behind Falcone. Is Redd's inexperience and naivity showing again in her script of low expectations.
Knows are:
Horton wins.
House and Falcone fight it out for second and third.
Redd did not catch on until too late and then too little will trail House and Falcone.
Channing to follow Redd by a distance.
Mayoral outcome:
Blum 63%
Ebenstein 27%
Kramer 8%
Thinker 2%
others <1%
Sentimental preference is Blum >65%, but too many voters actually believe NewsPress editorials.
Prediction, we will not know the outcome of the 3rd seat today as so many absentee ballots are being walk in
Krmaer gets 8% and I'll move someplace else. And I agree that we may not know for sure about the 3rd seat tonight, unless its really late in the evening.
I'm guessing
Horton
Redd
Falcone
Kramer at 8% is a bit extreme.
Prediction now for Kremer estimated at 4%, with Lammy at more than 30%.
If so many absentee ballots are turned in late on election day, the culture really will shift with the expectation that conclusive results will be posted by 9 pm.
Joe Holland will be under pressure to get the late ballots counted fast, or at least provide a total of how many are to be processed, so the margins of probability can be estimated.
The way things will break down is like this.
By 9pm we will know that Horton and House are in good shape and that Falcone Redd and Channing will be too close to each other to make a call. Even after all the results come in from the precincts it will still be too close.
Josh Molina is going to have a field day with this one.
Post a Comment
<< Home