HBJ Gains Will Likely Mean Little
New vote counts from all three counties have brought the difference between Hannah-Beth Jackson and Tony Strickland to just 903 votes but unless there is a preponderance of votes left in Los Angeles County that happen to be in the district and very pro-HBJ-- this deficit will be too much to overcome.
In my rather "wonkish" assessment last week, we saw that HBJ would have to get over 60% of the votes that were left to win the race. This round of vote counting brought he a 52.7% to 47.2% ratio. This shows that provisional votes in Ventura County gave her a slight bump in likely Democratic votes but not enough to overcome Strickland. Here's a chart and there's more info on this from Jerry Roberts over at The Indy.
(Click to Enlarge)
In my rather "wonkish" assessment last week, we saw that HBJ would have to get over 60% of the votes that were left to win the race. This round of vote counting brought he a 52.7% to 47.2% ratio. This shows that provisional votes in Ventura County gave her a slight bump in likely Democratic votes but not enough to overcome Strickland. Here's a chart and there's more info on this from Jerry Roberts over at The Indy.
(Click to Enlarge)
Labels: 19th SD, Hannah-Beth Jackson, Tony Strickland
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