Here's part of what she had to say about it in an email to supporters:
Now it is time to put the campaign and partisanship behind us, and for both sides to work together without animosity or vindictiveness. We are facing too many challenges with our state budget and the current economic crisis to continue any hostilities that are so counter-productive. We must come together for the common good.
As for me, I will continue to work on important issues in our community and our state. I look forward to working with you again in the near future.
On this day of Thanksgiving, I am very grateful to have had this truly exhilarating experience and to have had your friendship and support along the way. It has been an honor and a privilege for me to have been your standard-bearer for the values and beliefs we share and the vision we have for our state's future.
New vote counts from all three counties have brought the difference between Hannah-Beth Jackson and Tony Strickland to just 903 votes but unless there is a preponderance of votes left in Los Angeles County that happen to be in the district and very pro-HBJ-- this deficit will be too much to overcome.
In my rather "wonkish" assessment last week, we saw that HBJ would have to get over 60% of the votes that were left to win the race. This round of vote counting brought he a 52.7% to 47.2% ratio. This shows that provisional votes in Ventura County gave her a slight bump in likely Democratic votes but not enough to overcome Strickland. Here's a chart and there's more info on this from Jerry Roberts over at The Indy.
19th Senate District Update: HBJ Gains Some Ground on Santa Barbara Votes
In my last post, I outlined what it would take for Hannah-Beth to win the 19th Senate District with the votes that are left to count. She would need over 60% of what is left in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties to win by one vote. An update from the County of Santa Barbara yesterday allowed her to gain ground with 63% of 1,648 votes. Unfortunately, some of this gain was erased by 353 votes which were counted in Los Angeles County where she only received 44% of the updated vote. She is now better off than the other day with a 1,721 vote deficit with the majority of votes to be counted in Ventura County next week.
Can Anyone Prove Me Wrong? HBJ Odds of Winning Slim to None with Too Much Ground to Cover
The vote difference between Hannah-Beth Jackson and Tony Strickland in recent days has decreased from 2,141 votes to 1,721 with Strickland still very much in the lead. Here's what the table looks like with Santa Barbara counting 2,000 provisional ballots and HBJ gaining 65% of that vote.
(Click to Enlarge)
Can Hannah-Beth catch up at this point? HBJ's campaign sent out a nice email today to supporters which would have you believe she still has a shot at winning.
This deficit may seem like a lot but there are still over 3,000 provisional ballots in Santa Barbara to count and an estimated 14,000 provisional ballots in Ventura County, and these ballots should favor us.
The bottom line is we are still in the game here and have a good shot at winning. We always knew it was going to be a close race, and it will be close to the very end. We could very well see a little more up-and-down movement while LA and Ventura finish up their non-provisional vote count, so hang in there!
Spin versus statistics, which are we to believe? I wish I could say that she has a chance but, if I did, it would venture it be a very small one. If we are to plot the vote count updates since election day just in Ventura, where most of the vote remains, we never see Hannah-Beth's line cross Stricklands at all which makes the "up and down movement" statement made by her campaign only partially true. The combined differences have gone back and forth a bit but the trend makes it hard to believe that she could end up the victor in this race.
(Click to Enlarge)
If we look at the trends for each of the counties, we see the same thing:
(Click to Enlarge)
With 17,000 votes to count (there may be more to count in Los Angeles but it would likely number in the hundreds), let's say Hannah Beth did as well in Ventura as she recently has done in Santa Barbara. This is unlikely given the demographics of Ventura County and the vote to date but is the best case scenario. Then let's look at the more likely scenario and what it would take for her to win.
(Click to Enlarge)
I wish Hannah-Beth the best but I don't see these figures working out. In saying "The bottom line is we are still in the game here and have a good shot at winning.", her campaign is very much hoping for the best.
I believe in the wisdom of many and would be happy to be proven wrong. If I made a mistake in my assumptions or my numbers I would certainly be pleased to eat crow. Take out your TI Calculators! As I am not a mathematician, I would also be interested in hearing if anyone can figure out the probabilities involved with this rather real world math problem.
Governator to Visit Tea Fire Damage or Congratulate Strickland?
It's been hard to get television coverage on the Internets of the fire. There are decent saved video stories from KSBY and even citizen video that's been great. KEYT looked totally unprepared for their coverage wondering out loud when the fire started during their coverage yesterday morning. Live feeds from FOX 11 disgusted me with their emphasis on whether Oprah and other celebrity's homes were safe. Doesn't Dennis Miller live up there? Is Steve Martin still there?
Although I feel for our local celebrities, like Christopher Lloyd who lost his home yesterday -- Fox LA's morning news team could have taken a better angle. It was like The View for news. The print and internet media led by The Indy and EdHat have been the most useful source of news -- thanks to Ed, Ray Ford and Ethan Stewart and crew for doing an awesome job.
I'd rather not get so cynical about the Governator visiting us in the coming days but it's hard not to considering the vote from the last election is still being counted and it looks like Tony Strickland is pulling too far ahead of Hannah-Beth Jackson for her to catch up with however many votes are left to count. Fridays results pushed Strickland up by 2,141 votes. Let's hope Arnold separates the victory party from the offers of help for our friends on Coyote Road.
(Remember you can click on the image to make it larger).
19th Senate District Update (11/13, 6 AM) Strickland Now Too Far Ahead?
Late yesterday I realized that I will need to time stamp these updates as the numbers are changing so often. Here's the latest as of this morning - Strickland is now ahead by 1,560 votes. How long will this back and forth go on? I'm afraid that unless there are a great many Santa Barbara-based votes left, Hannah-Beth may not be able to catch up. Hopefully we will get another update today.
As requested, there are totals on the charts now. Remember you can click on them to make them larger.
19th Senate District Update (11/12): SB Gains for HBJ Lost in LA
Yesterday, Hannah-Beth Jackson gained on Tony Strickland in Santa Barbara County only to lose that gain in the votes counted in Los Angeles County. Wanting to make sure I didn't have a mess up of Alaskan proportions, I double checked my numbers as math was never my best subject. Sure enough, it showed the difference between them to be the exact same as yesterday, even with 4,604 more votes having been counted. Strickland is still 540 votes ahead. As the line graph hasn't changed all that much, I offer a slightly different look with the over time graph today that shows the trends are staying similar across the district.
Simply Click on the Image to Make The Chart Larger.
In other local races, Ed Heron has increased his lead over Charlotte Ware to 418 votes for the 3rd school board seat. In Carpinteria, Kathleen Reddington has increased her 17 vote lead over Steve McWhirter to 41 votes for the 2nd council seat.
19th Senate District Update: Strickland Pulls Ahead
More votes were counted yesterday and Tony Strickland has pulled ahead by 540 votes between the three counties in the 19th Senate District. 51,196 votes have been counted since election night and these votes were from Ventura County. The vote in Santa Barbara County hasn't been updated since Friday yet there are some 10,000 votes left to be counted between provisional and vote-by-mail ballots.
As Jerry Roberts points out over at The Santa Barbara Independent:
Jackson's best hope of eking out a win now appears to rest with about 4,000 absentee votes still to be counted in Santa Barbara County, where officials in the voter registrar's office also have to contend with 6,000 provisional ballots, which were held out on Election Day because of questions about the registration of those who cast them.
You can click on either chart to see a larger version:
When will the election be over? When all the votes are counted...
Isn't democracy great? Americans made a resounding statement last Tuesday but there are still several campaigns for public office that will hang in the balance until every vote is counted.
Chuck Shultz at the Santa Maria Times reports that 20,000 votes were counted between Wednesday and Friday of last week. Some 85,000 are still left to be counted in the three county region that includes the 19th Senate District. Even though Los Angeles County only represents a small part of the district -- that is a lot of votes to count before we know who the winner is.
If that wasn't enough a "manual tally" of 10% of the vote is required by state law when there is a State Senate race that is this close. here's what Schultz wrote in the Santa Maria Times:
The see-saw battle between Jackson and Strickland could stretch into late November or early December before election officials declare an official winner. That is due to a state regulation requiring a “manual tally” of each ballot cast in a randomly selected 10 percent of all precincts, for any race where the semi-official results on election night showed the top two candidates within a half-percent of each other.
I've heard from a reliable source that there are 4,000 vote-by-mail ballots and 6,000 provisional ballots left to be counted in Santa Barbara County. Although there is no way of knowing where exactly these votes are from -- they could have a direct impact on the school board race where Ed Heron has extended his lead to 320 votes for the third seat and in Carpinteria where Kathleen Reddington is only 17 votes ahead of Steve McWhirter.
We'll stay on top of it here at BlogaBarbara but we may be still waiting for some of these results as we approach the later part of the holidays....
The BlogaBarbara Magic Voting Chart (well maybe not so much like CNN...) has changed. The Ventura numbers of ballots counted increased since yesterday to 191,394 from from 181,100. The almost 9,500 votes show a switch in the lead to Tony Strickland by 840 votes with 52% of the votes counted in recent days.
Will the provisional and day-of vote-by-mail ballots from Santa Barbara County carry the day for HBJ? Only time will tell but we would have to expect it ain't over until it's over on this one.
There looks to be some 40,000 to 50,000 votes to be counted in this important State Senate District race wehre Hannah-Beth Jackson is currently just 108 votes ahead. Ironically, they are replacing Tom McClintock who is also in a yet to be decided Congressional race. He's just 400 votes ahead of Democrat Charlie Brown. More soon...
Only 108 Votes Separate Strickland from HBJ's Victory
We all knew this would be close -- but this close? Will there be a recount? A 108 vote victory is the difference between Hannah Beth Jackson and Tony Strickland.
In another tight race, Ed Heron leads Charlotte Ware for the third seat by on 241 votes. Provisional ballots and dropped-off vote-by-mail ballots may decide that one.
There are also the random endorsements, or set of endorsements in this case, that you don't expect. I read in one of Ventura's main blogs, Making Waves, that Hannah Beth Jackson has received the endorsement of all 19 Ventura County school superintendents. Wow. That does not happen very often.
The Nexus endorsement put it perfectly, albeit sensationally, when they said:
Jackson looks even better when pitted against Tony Strickland. We fundamentally disagree with almost everything Strickland stands for. If he is elected, we’re moving.
From an email Hannah Beth Jackson's Campaign sent out last night...Sara
Today The Los Angles Times strongly endorsed Hannah-Beth Jackson for State Senate, stating:
"The Times has no problem making its choice. We wholeheartedly back Jackson. The environmental and education credentials she built up as a member of the Assembly will be put to good use in the Senate, and we're counting on her to help work through California's budget mess."
This from the HBJ campaign -- there's more where this came from, I'll report on that story soon. I actually haven't gotten the mailer. If someone wants to scan it -- I'd be happy to post it. -- Sara
Strickland sends out illegal mailing in effort to trick voters
Strickland mailer designed to look like it is coming from Jackson. Illegally fails to disclose actual sender.
Tony Strickland has reached a new low in his dishonest campaign against Hannah-Beth Jackson. Yesterday, voters in the 19th District received a mailing from Strickland’s campaign titled “Hannah-Beth Jackson’s Economic Plan.” Inside, the mailing contained Strickland’s predictable false charges about Hannah-Beth Jackson and taxes.
The mailing was clearly designed to look like it was coming from Hannah-Beth Jackson’s campaign.
The problem is that nowhere on the piece of mail is the actual sender (Tony Strickland’s State Senate Committee) disclosed. State election law requires the name of the committee to be prominently placed on the outside of every piece of political mail.
We know it comes from Strickland because it has his return address on the piece – postal regulations require a return address. The piece could not be mailed without one.
“Tony Strickland believes he can blatantly violate the law because he knows that the only consequence will be a fine, levied months after the election. Strickland has no regard for the law,” stated Jackson consultant Parke Skelton.
“This was not an inadvertent failure to put the proper disclaimer on the mailer, it is an obvious attempt to confuse voters,” Skelton continued.
This is the prevailing section of the State’s Political Reform Act:
§ 84305. Requirements for Mass Mailing.
(a) Except as provided in subdivision (b), no candidate or committee shall send a mass mailing unless the name, street address, and city of the candidate or committee are shown on the outside of each piece of mail in the mass mailing and on at least one of the inserts included within each piece of mail of the mailing in no less than 6-point type which shall be in a color or print which contrasts with the background so as to be easily legible.
“We will be seeking legal remedies to ensure that this illegal election fraud is appropriately punished,” Skelton concluded.
One of These Commercials is Not Like The Other! What's the difference?
The other day, I did a post about Tony Strickland's attack ad which was paid for by special interests (California Taxpayer Protection Committee). Today, I present to you his ad and her ad. His ad makes false claims -- see below. Her ad shows her experience....
Here's info from HBJ's campaign refuting Strickland's ad:
The advertisement placed on local TV and cable stations by friends of candidate Tony Strickland is patently false in every factual claim it makes.
The ad cites a series of legislative votes cast by Hannah-Beth Jackson to “prove” three assertions. Let’s examine them one by one.
Claim: Jackson “voted to raise the gas tax.”
To support this assertion, the ad cited 5 bills.
AB16, 2003, Hannah-Beth Jackson author.
AB16 had nothing whatsoever to do with gas taxes. AB16 required that petroleum produced offshore be transported to shore by pipeline, not by barge, to help prevent oil spills. It affected only one petroleum operation in the state.
AB1058, 2002, Pavley
AB1058 had nothing whatsoever to do with gasoline taxes. AB1058 was one of Pavley’s landmark greenhouse gas emission bills, requiring the Air Resources Board to adopt regulations to comply with the state’s greenhouse gas reduction goals. Strickland, a global warming denier, voted against this important bill.
AB1706, 1999, Strickland
At least this had something to do with gasoline taxes. This do nothing bill would have required the California Energy Commission to report back to the legislature on ways to lower gas prices. It was an attempt by Strickland to answer skepticism about whether the oil companies would return any reduction in gas taxes to consumers, or simply pocket the extra profit. A vote against Strickland’s bill can in no way be called a vote “to increase gas taxes.”
AB1707, 2000, Kuehl
This is the most ludicrous citation of all. AB1707 was a bill to protect consumers from the release or sale of private financial information without their affirmative approval. Jackson supported this bill. Strickland, ever the slavish servant of his special interest contributors, opposed the bill. Needless to say, this bill had nothing whatsoever to do with gas taxes, or even petroleum
AB1740, 2001, Ducheny
This bill formally enacted the state budget for the 2000-01 budget year. It was 869 pages long, and did not raise gas taxes.
In fact, state gas taxes in California have not been increased since 1990. They have been constant at 18 cents per gallon for 18 years, despite inflation and the fact that gas prices have dramatically increased.
Claim: Jackson “voted to weaken Proposition 13 making it easier to raise property taxes.”
To start, Prop 13 is a state constitutional amendment, passed by voters, which cannot be changed, altered or “weakened” without a vote of the people.
But the ad nevertheless cites three bills to buttress this laughable claim.
AB94, 2003, Chu
Prop 13 limits property taxes to 1% of assessed valuation with an exemption for public indebtedness approved by voters before July 1, 1978. In 1982 the California Supreme Court ruled (Carmen v. Alvord) that public employee pension obligations approved by voters before July 1, 1978 constituted “indebtedness” and 26 jurisdictions around the state were given the authority to set a somewhat higher property tax rate to meet that obligation. AB94 granted an extension to allow those jurisdictions to cover their voter approved pensions. Jackson’s yes vote did not weaken Prop 13 in any way.
AB822, 1999, Mazzoni
This bill was very similar to AB94, except it affected only public pensions in the city of Oakland, and imposed the additional requirement that the rate be approved by a 2/3rd vote of the electorate.
AB81, 2002, Migden
AB81 resolved an arcane jurisdictional dispute involving whether local county assessors or the State Board of Equalization should perform property tax assessments on large electrical generation plants. Until the passage of energy deregulation in 1996, electrical generation plants had always been assessed by the BOE. Deregulation shifted that responsibility to county assessors. The BOE reasserted their jurisdiction and the whole issue wound up in the state legislature. AB81 had nothing to do with Prop 13. The big utilities preferred dealing with the less experienced local assessors. Strickland toed their line and voted No.
Claim: Jackson “voted to increase the car tax.”
The ad does not cite a specific bill, but credits this claim to the intentionally vague “August 2003 Gray Davis Budget Vote.”
In 1998 the car tax (Vehicle License Fee, VLF) was reduced from its historic 2% rate to .65% as a way of returning a budget surplus to taxpayers. Funds from the VLF, which were channeled to local governments, was “backfilled” by the state to prevent local services from being cut. The VLF program included a provision that ended the reductions if the state did not have the funds to make the “backfill” payments to cities and counties. In 2003 the state faced unprecedented budget shortfalls.
Here is how the respected Legislative Analyst’s Office explained it:
Vehicle License Fee (VLF). The budget assumes that the VLF will increase from the current effective rate of .65 percent to 2 percent beginning October 1, 2003. As a component of the VLF reductions that were enacted in 1998, current law provides that the state "backfill" (and thus make local governments whole) the difference between the lower VLF rate and the 2 percent rate, unless the state has "insufficient moneys" with which to make such payments. In June 2003, the Department of Finance made a determination that the state had insufficient moneys to provide any backfill to local government, and as a result of this determination, the backfill ended and the VLF will return to the 2 percent level in October 2003.
“Major Features of the California Budget” LAO, 2003
The decision to suspend the VLF reduction was made by the Department of Finance.
Here's a press release I received from an avid reader. It isn't even Labor Day yet! Coupled with Olympic ads for the last week -- Strickland's strategy seems to be more for the airwaves than in the neighborhoods. -- Sara
It didn't take long. Supporters of Tony Strickland will begin airing a TV spot attacking Hannah-Beth Jackson in the highly competitive State Senate District 19 today. Public information on file at KSBY and KEYT broadcast television stations in Santa Barbara show that a group called the "California Taxpayer Protection Committee" will be airing advertisements attacking Hannah-Beth Jackson beginning 8/13.
They paid $52,750 for the time on these two stations.
The Committee has received over $125,000 in funding from large insurance companies this year. They have also received $20,000 from Howard Ahmanson Jr., a far right-wing activist who has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into campaigns to elect extremist candidates.
Ahmanson told the Orange County Register in 1985, "My goal is the total integration of biblical law into our lives."
The most recent California Taxpayer Committee campaign filing can be found at:
The Committee is closely allied with the consultants who work for Tony Strickland. Strickland's general consultant Johnson/Clark has been paid over $112,000 by the Committee in recent campaigns. The firm placing the advertising for the anti-Jackson Independent Expenditure (Voter Strategies) is also placing the advertising for the Strickland campaign.
"Clearly, this is the opening shot is what will be a massive campaign by Tony Strickland and his corporate sponsors and extremist political allies to smear Hannah-Beth Jackson," stated Jackson consultant Parke Skelton. "Hannah-Beth Jackson has stood up to the insurance companies to protect consumers and homeowners. Tony Strickland has consistently sided with the big insurance companies and against the interests of our families."
Dueling Bedfellows: Moderate Republicans versus Conservative Democrats
A couple weeks ago, I did a post on the Democrats for Strickland web site. Today I heard about a new group called Moderate Republicans for Jackson. Many thanks to a dedicated reader for sending me the press release.
They claim to include former State Senator Cathie Wright, former Ventura Republican Chair Bill Larkin and a few other notables that are primarily Ventura County-based. Of course, Strickland's tobacco contributions were mentioned in the press release. Perhaps most interesting was comments about the California Club for Growth -- which we are told has a mission to kill the careers of moderate Republicans. Their website is located at http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/RepublicansforHBJ/
“Our group, Moderate Republicans for Jackson, was formed out of concern that Strickland is a man who is far removed from the beliefs and ethical standards held by the majority of people in our neighborhoods,” Larkin said. “Tony Strickland is an extremist. He was the founding president of the California Club for Growth, part of the ultra right-wing National Club for Growth which has made it a mission to destroy the political careers of moderate Republicans.”
It seems both campaigns feel this race will be won or lost in Ventura County -- and they are probably correct. It also seems this race is more about who is more extreme than the other. At least we are seeing Jackson's supporters back their support up with descriptions of legislation she authored and exactly who supports her.
The other day I pointed out that HBJ could take it to the hoop -- it looks like Strickland supporters are taking it to the street. This from the Ventura County Star describing a "fracas" involving Assembly Member Audra Strickland's Chief of Staff getting into it with a protester, knocking his hearing aid out and wrestling him to the ground.
Audra Strickland, R-Moorpark, announced she was placing Joel Angeles, her chief of staff, on "a one-month leave of absence without pay for what I view as a show of poor judgment," according to a written statement issued by her office.
Of course later in the article, she had to point out "most accounts show that Hannah-Beth Jackson's protesters were the aggressors."
Jackson put out a statement of which here is a part:
Had Joel Angeles been my employee he would have been fired on the spot. There is no justification for anyone, let alone a state employee, to deprive anyone of their free speech rights. A public employee on the staff of an elected representative is committed to protect the constitution on behalf of his employer, the State of California. Assemblymember Strickland has apparently suspended Mr. Angeles for a month. It is incomprehensible that someone with such a long history of service with Audra and Tony Strickland as Mr. Angeles would not understand the public's basic constitutional rights and the responsibilities of a public official. Audra and Tony Strickland should ensure that he has no future role in fulfilling their public responsibilities or campaigning for public office.
Unlike the Lakers, HB Jackson Can Take It To The Hoop!
Although Altria does much more than sell tobacco -- Hannah Beth Jackson takes it to Strickland pretty hard here. Can you blame her? This is the time to distinguish yourself from the other candidate. Associating Strickland with a "cartel" certainly does that. Here's a statement sent from her campaign:
Over 440,000 Americans die early, costly, preventable deaths from tobacco, and over 2,000 children begin illegal tobacco use each day. In August 2006, after a criminal prosecution extending over 8 years, the US tobacco cartel was found guilty on federal racketeering charges for “marketing and selling their lethal product with zeal, deception, with a single-minded focus on their financial success and without regard for the human tragedy or social costs that success exacted,” (Judge Kessler). This same cartel spends over $1.8 million dollars a year in California in contributions to elected officials and candidates, to limit regulation of their products and stop effective tobacco control that would reduce smoking and thereby reduce the astronomical costs to the public of tobacco-related disease. It is deeply troubling to me that any candidate for public office would be complicit in so seriously undermining the public interest and public health.
In light of the extraordinary dangers posed by tobacco products and the tobacco industry’s defense of their use, I call upon my opponent in the race for the 19th Senate District to return all contributions received from tobacco companies or their representatives, including
the over $6,000 received directly by Strickland for Senate for the current campaign;
the $50,000 received by the Ventura County Republican Party which is clearly earmarked for this State Senate contest;
the over $85,000 which Tony Strickland campaign committees have received directly from tobacco interests throughout his career in the State Assembly
My record as a public official is clear. Tobacco Industry money has no influence on my vote. As a member of the Assembly and as a candidate for the 19th State Senate District I have not and will not solicit or accept contributions from tobacco companies. I received one of the highest scores in the legislature on tobacco control issues from independent reviews by the UCSF Medical School . As a representative of the 19th Senate District I will advocate for a return to the public health strategies first implemented in the early 90s in California , which included highly effective media communications and public education on the dangers of tobacco, and caused immediate and significant decreases in the rates of smoking among Californians.
The American Medical Association recommends that its members, state and local medical societies, to determine whether candidates for federal state and local offices accept gifts or contributions of any kind from the tobacco industry, and publicize their findings to both their members and to the public (AMA Resolution CSA Rep. 3, A-04). I urge California AMA Chapters, doctors, nurses, everyone in health related professions and in the media to carefully monitor the spending by the tobacco industry in the campaign for Senate District 19, so that the public can safely predict how their representative will vote and advocate on tobacco control related issues.
