The
Political Player this week is you,
Gentle Readers.
What are your predictions for the Santa Barbara election results Tuesday night?
Bonus Play of the Week: Helene Schneider cold-shoulders, with liquid nitrogen,
News-Press-Less-Mess-Suppress Editorialist Travis Armstrong, who reacts through a pathetic attempt to take his dwindling readers out for a snipe hunt via his fabricated, factually-challenged, and less-than-candid wishful conspiracy theory he dubbed "
Helene-Gate." His written
temper tantrum early in the week so far has marked his lifetime editorial nadir and spanned two days of Travistorials, which only inspired more sympathy for Schneider and should gain her far more votes than would be lost. Thinking (if that is what it is) that he was hurting and insulting her, the Travisty quoted a dry, nearly bureaucratic, but polite email message from Council Member Helene Schneider:
"Travis -- I am sorry to say that I will not appear on AM 1290 with you at this time. While I would like to communicate with your listeners, I cannot trust that an interview (or its subsequent reporting in the News-Press) would be fair and unbiased. I'm also willing to respond (as I have been in the past) to News-Press reporters when they write stories on city-related issues. Helene."
Translation: Travis, you are full of shit and never can be trusted, but if you send a real reporter who cares about facts and will be allowed to publish them, then I might give an interview. (No such article about Schneider's "Gate" has been published anywhere.)
Now, back to the varsity game. What,
Gentle Readers, are your
realistic and serious predictions for the outcome of the City election to be final 46 hours from now?
For reference, here are the City Council election results from the past four Council elections, information from
Smart Voter.2005 (8 candidates)Roger L. Horton ....... 13070 votes 20.05%
Iya Falcone .......... 12318 votes 18.89%
Grant House .......... 10914 votes 16.74%
Loretta Redd .......... 9316 votes 14.29%
Dianne Channing .......... 7075 votes 10.85%
Terry J. Tyler .......... 6574 votes 10.08%
Charles Quintero ......... 3091 votes 4.74%
Bob Hansen .......... 2565 votes 3.93%
2003 (9 candidates)Helene Schneider ......... 8597 votes
Das Williams .......... 8169 votes
Brian B. Barnwell .......... 7955 votes
Babatunde Folayemi .......... 6933 votes
Scott Burns .......... 6622 votes
Michael Magne .......... 6557 votes
"Carlos" Quintero ....... 1337 votes
Bob Hansen .......... 1011 votes
Robert B. Cawley ......... 721 votes
2001 (12 candidates)Iya Falcone .......... 8359 votes 17.33%
Roger L. Horton ...... 7954 votes 16.49%
Dan B. Secord ........ 6982 votes 14.47%
Babatunde Folayemi ...... 6755 votes 14.00%
Michael Purvis .......... 3419 votes 7.09%
Keith Coffman-Grey ........ 2717 votes 5.63%
Isaac Garrett .......... 2596 votes 5.38%
Joseph Luke Appleton ........ 2579 votes 5.35%
David Esparza, Jr. .......... 2142 votes 4.44%
"Carlos" Quintero .......... 1840 votes 3.81%
Marcia C. Sherman .......... 1410 votes 2.92%
Michael Faeth .......... 1339 votes 2.78%
1999 (7 candidates)Marty Blum .......... 10,413 votes 21.5%
Gregg A. Hart .......... 9,652 votes 19.9%
Harold P. Fairly .......... 7,525 votes 15.5%
Joseph Guzzardi .......... 6,665 votes 13.8%
John C. Strawn .......... 6,546 votes 13.5%
Bruce Rittenhouse .......... 5,164 votes 10.7%
Robert Allen Hansen .......... 2,474 votes 5.1%
For past information about voter turn out and absentee vs. polling place ballots, our friends with Measure A
provided a nifty table of the past 12 years of voting results.
PREDICT THESE, realistically and seriously:- Council Member Election Ranking (first, second, third... through eighth)
- Number of votes per Council Member (absolute number or percentage)
- Results for Measure A (absolute number of votes or percentage)
- Total voter turn out (absolute number or percentage)
- Absentee vs. polling place voter numbers (absolute number or percentage)
- Time of night when all the ballots are counted from the polling places
Make your predictions and place your bets if you dare,
Gentle Readers.