Santa Barbara Politics, Media & Culture

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Only 108 Votes Separate Strickland from HBJ's Victory

We all knew this would be close -- but this close? Will there be a recount? A 108 vote victory is the difference between Hannah Beth Jackson and Tony Strickland.

In another tight race, Ed Heron leads Charlotte Ware for the third seat by on 241 votes. Provisional ballots and dropped-off vote-by-mail ballots may decide that one.

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Anonymous David Pritchett said...

California Secretary of State reports at present for late election night, the count:
Hannah-Beth Jackson: 153,106 50.1%
Tony Strickland: 152,998 49.9%

That is a difference of mere 108 votes!!!!
Secretary of State website is now down for current vote counts per County.

LOTS of votes from Ventura County still are not yet counted in these totals (per Ventura Star news article below from this morning). So far Jackson is 4.3% behind Strickland in the Ventura County vote counts.

The remaining late-mail and provisional ballots in Ventura County should --analysts during past elections have agreed-- represent a "somewhat random" collection of Ventura County voter sentiment.

So, the question remains about where all the remaining uncounted votes will come from within Ventura County and a smaller (still so far unreported) number from Santa Barbara County. (The Los Angeles County, Santa Clarita, portion of the Senate District is too small for this analysis so far).

With the huge voter turnout in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties, that could be many THOUSANDS of uncounted votes in both counties, thereby leading to a conclusion that the current micro-lead for Strickland may not hold... or it could widen... or not.

from Ventura County Star today:
Many votes still left to be counted
by Star Staff

Updated 08:22 a.m., November 5, 2008
* Jackson, Strickland too close to call

Tens of thousands of ballots are left to be counted in Ventura County.

Tracy Saucedo, Ventura County assistant registrar of voters and manager of the elections division, said late absentee and provisional ballots are still being counted and it is unknown how many were cast.

The current election results represent all of the regular ballots cast at the polling places on Tuesday and absentees ballots turned in early. The 182,283 votes turned in by the precincts and 60,537 ballots that were mailed in have been counted for a total of 242,820 votes counted.

Before the election, officials predicted turnout to be more than 80 percent of registered voters, or about 340,000 votes.

By Thursday at 5 p.m. the county elections office must report to the California Secretary of State exactly how many ballots are in and how many must still be counted.

11/05/2008 9:13 AM  

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